1	What will the World Look Like: Predicting the Future of Technology Summary and Conclusions L. D. Alford Engineer, Test Pilot, Author www.lionelalford.com www.ldalford.com
2	Future?
3	Books The Second Mission Centurion Aegypt The End of Honor The Fox’s Honor A Season of Honor $15 each, $40 for set
4	Fiction Historical Fiction looks to the past for understanding Science Fiction looks to the future for understanding Technology drives the future
5	Technology If we can predict the future of technology, we can predict the future of the world
6	Course Outline 1. Introduction and approach 2. Transportation 3. Computers 4. Medicine 5. Energy 6. Exploration 7. Military 8. Conclusions
7	Technological Predictions 1. Current technology review 2. Directions 3. 10 years 4. 100 years 5. 1000 years 6. 10,000 years 7. Summary 8. Conclusion
8	Approach So this is what we did 1. Looked at needs 2. Assumed everything was possible in time 3. Looked at the past to see the future 4. Looked for the simplest solution
9	Conclusions Transportation Saw individual craft still a focus of society Transition of technology to individuals More freedom not less Markets continue to drive Mass transportation changes to individual transportation Conquer the universe NASA won’t be driving
10	Conclusions Computers Computers will infiltrate everything Robots will provide more and more services Devices will become human integrated Systems will become human Computers will become biological Computers are the unseen driver of all technology
11	Conclusions Medicine Internal Personal Automated Robots Computer controlled All watchwords for medicine in the future As long as there is a market
12	Conclusions Energy Heavy hydrocarbon Nuclear Individual Cost driven All watchwords for energy in the future As long as there is a market
13	Conclusions Exploration Survival the reason for exploration Fusion Governments drive exploration Hegemony (power and survival) result of exploration Government involvement and leadership necessary (only powerful nations survive)
14	Conclusions Military Survival the reason for warfare/military Purpose protection of private property Governments drive military Hegemony (power and survival) result of military Government involvement and leadership necessary (only powerful nations survive)
15	The Future What do you want the future to look like? Decisions we make now affect future of the world Survival dependent on Exploration and Military, but military dependent on other technology
16	The Future Means in modern world the nation that has the most powerful technology will likely survive The ones that don’t will not
17	Choices Hegemony Democratic Republic Capitalism Free Markets Freedom Independence Wealth Health Hegemony Autocratic Dictatorship Socialism/Communism Controlled Markets Security Dependence Poverty Disease or worse
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20	Choices In terms of technology—the only choice is market Capitalism and free markets are the major diviners of technological increase Also major determinates of individual freedom—freest nations are those with the freest markets
21	Markets and Freedom Index of Economic Freedom US has been #6 of freest nations based on markets for years Listed in the “free” category First time this year it has dropped to #8 and into the “mostly free” category China, India, Russia slowly moving up slowly
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23	10 Measures of Economic Freedom Business Freedom Trade Freedom Monetary Freedom Government Size Fiscal Freedom Property Rights Investment Freedom Financial Freedom Freedom from Corruption Labor Freedom
24	Freedom House Political Freedom
25	History If History is any example, movement toward less free markets will cripple US technology That affects military Which affects hegemony Which leads to eventual decline The rest of the world will enjoy the fruits of the future—we may not
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27	Choices Government must attend to the job of government Fascism, Socialism, Communism – hegemonic increase through expansion, usually military or fifth column Democratic Republic (free market capitalism) – hegemonic increase via other avenues—characteristic of the USA
28	Economic Systems Fascism Socialism Communism Capitalism (free markets)
29	Economic Systems Fascism – government controls business through regulation Socialism – government owns business Communism – government owns everything Capitalism (free markets) – individuals own and control business, private property
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31	"Population" Population
32	"Personal Wealth" Personal Wealth
33	History Capitalism is natural result of markets Invention of money 600 BC Invention of trade Natural state of humans Private property All other economic systems are imposed and not natural Fascism, Socialism, Communism
34	History of Military Under capitalism Modern military necessary to Protect private property Ensure “rule of law” Protect markets Did I say protect private property Most private of property is self Everything else what you can make or purchase Life, liberty, pursuit of happiness
35	History of Military Under Fascism, Socialism, Communism Modern military necessary to Protect government Perpetuate government control Expand hegemony No need to protect private property Belongs to government Life, liberty, pursuit of happiness from government
36	History The Road to Serfdom - F. A. Hayek Correlates the rise of socialism (Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Soviet Russia, British Socialism) with loss of individual and market freedom Hayek tells us (as the entire 20^th century does) that socialism means loss of individual and national wealth
37	What next? What can we do?
38	Choices Hegemony Democratic Republic Capitalism Free Markets Freedom Independence Wealth Health Hegemony Autocratic Dictatorship Socialism/Communism Controlled Markets Security Dependence Poverty Disease or worse
39	History Unless you want to go to a dictatorship (survival economy) Military expansion etc. Survival means high technology High technology means markets Freer the markets more technological development You only have one choice
40	Deregulate Everything Regulations and restrictions damage markets Already have remedy for harms Criminal Civil Regulations and restrictions actually reduce benefits and cause additional harm
41	Regulations and Restrictions Provide business with excuse for harm Current banking and finance issue Salmonella in peanut butter Push payment for harm on government Current banking, car manufacturer etc. Reduce benefit to public Government benefits for harm are always less than business penalties from the courts
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43	Cost of Regulation 1992 study by congress stated that $7M of taxes and regulations cost one life Cadmium regulation cost 100 lives, to save 24 Current cost is unknown Military equals one life at $1M Cost in jobs is about 10 per $1M in regulations and taxes Regulations and taxes actually take lives
44	Fascism Economic system where the government controls business through regulations
45	Socialism Economic system where the government owns business – there is fundamentally no difference between socialism and fascism
46	Solutions True reduction of restrictions on markets No tariffs Low or no business taxes Hidden taxes that are levied on commerce No taxes on commerce Government spending on exploration and military Reductions in government spending on areas that perturbate the marketplace
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48	Bottom Line Markets drive all technology Restrictions on markets slow technological growth Government involvement slows growth Government necessary to protect private property Government only source with $s and incentive for military/exploration technology
49	Conclusions Future is bleak with restricted technology Should hope others are as restricted Restricted technology means eventual loss of hegemony Loss of hegemony portends end of survival Not with a bang, but a whimper…
50	Technological Predictions 1. Current technology review 2. Directions 3. 10 years 4. 100 years 5. 1000 years 6. 10,000 years 7. Summary 8. Conclusion
51	Where will we be? 10, 100, 1000, 10,000 years Who knows? We can say is that markets will continue to drive technology until something new comes along—if it comes along The nation that has the freest markets will have the potential to be the most powerful with the greatest hegemony They will survive
52	Next Time Ephesians: Unveiling the Musterion