1	What will the World Look Like: Predicting the Future of Technology Military L. D. Alford Engineer, Test Pilot, Author www.lionelalford.com www.ldalford.com
2	Future?
3	Books The Second Mission Centurion Aegypt The End of Honor The Fox’s Honor A Season of Honor $15 each, $40 for set
4	Fiction Historical Fiction looks to the past for understanding Science Fiction looks to the future for understanding Technology drives the future
5	Technology If we can predict the future of technology, we can predict the future of the world
6	Course Outline 1. Introduction and approach 2. Transportation 3. Computers 4. Medicine 5. Energy 6. Exploration 7. Military 8. Conclusions
7	Technological Predictions 1. Current technology review 2. Directions 3. 10 years 4. 100 years 5. 1000 years 6. 10,000 years 7. Summary 8. Conclusion
8	Approach So this is what we will do 1. Look at needs 2. Assume everything is possible in its time 3. Look at the past to see the future 4. Look for the simplest solution
9	Military Warfare Survival Hegemony = survival New resources = survival Expansion = hegemony = survival More than true in the ancient world
10	Warfare in History Warfare drove technology Warfare drove history History of the ancient world is warfare Why?
11	History Purpose of human culture and society? Protection Might makes right You only own what you can protect You only protect those things that you are willing to die for Culture and society allows people to bond together to protect themselves and property
12	History Purpose of government Extension of culture and society for protection Military Governance – military leadership (kings) Laws – leadership (kings) Punishment – leadership Human political and governing bodies came out of the need for protection
13	History Protect what? Themselves Property – (wives, children, slaves, workers) Private property Culture/society/politics/nations/governance technological developments driven by warfare
14	History Warfare drives technology Warfare drives society and culture Warfare is the means of survival Private property the point and the purpose Governance requires restriction of rights Military service restriction of rights Human experience until rise of markets
15	Rule of Law Development of “rule of law” took power from few and applied to many Transformation in human culture “Rule of law” made markets possible Markets expand property from few to many Markets drive technology Markets and “rule of law” give power to humans beyond scope of “might makes right”
16	History Military still necessary to Protect private property Ensure “rule of law” Protect markets Did I say protect private property Most private of property is self Everything else what you can make or purchase Life, liberty, pursuit of happiness
17	History Military in history began with infantry Stone age warfare Taking wives, children, slaves (much the same) Counting coop (honor as property) Taking property Usually not about land (can’t protect land as private property)
18	History Agrarianism changed everything Need to protect land (crops, implements, buildings) Need fast troops and transportation Chariots Cavalry Scouts Garrison Growth in military Professional military – military leaders
19	History Professional military developed through need of garrison led directly to kingdoms and empires Feudalism Experiments in governance Athenian democracy (all freemen fight) Roman republic (Legions, professional mil)
20	Feudalism Kings, right of kings, military leadership by an elite Makes sense in a survival culture Nutrition means Intelligence Energy Strength Beauty Reproduction
21	Feudalism Norm through most of human history until development of markets Markets pull you out of a survival economy No longer need for elite leadership if everyone has similar nutritional advantages Feudalism progressed until the mercantilism and age of enlightenment
22	Age of Enlightenment Markets drive technology and not military Markets much more effective at technology Nations driven by market technology expanded militarily Britain France Dutch USA Germany and others
23	Military Expansion Automobile and tractor preceded the tank Aircraft as a toy preceded the scout, fighter, and bomber In past military drove technology Cannons Guns Civil war muskets norm when breach loading rifle had been in use since (1836)
24	Military Expansion Gattling guns as artillery Conscription – people’s war Professional military
25	Modern Military Constantly lagging market and technology Dependable technology Survival technology Combat multipliers Military development means Keeping stuff from your enemies Dependent on market Using technology in ways not previously imagined Impossible for military—dependent on market
26	Modern Military Threats – what do we face? Opportunities – what can we do?
27	Modern Threats Hegemonic threats Local threats
28	Hegemonic Threats Can they destroy your nation or hegemony? China Russia European union India (potential) Reason Nucs WMDs in large enough amounts with sufficient military forces to capture and control
29	Local Threats Terrorism Small governments that can affect hegemonic outreach Iran Iraq North Korea Pakistan
30	Hegemonic Threats Most important highest level Many solutions Primary is military High tech WMDs Defense capabilities High ground Hegemonic basing Rapid deployment, assault
31	Local Threats Low hegemonic danger Low threat Powerful military still effective Hegemonic outreach and power projection most effective Forward basing Fight to enemy High ground Power projection
32	Bottom Line Markets drive military technology Necessary secrecy to maintain combat multipliers Restrictions on markets slow technological growth Government involvement slows growth Government is only source with $s and incentive for military technology
33	Needs = Threats Defense Offense Maneuver Transportation Supply Needs filled through technology Governments drive military - primary Markets drive military technology
34	Future Threats Hegemonic Local Looked at past What will the future look like? Military technology necessary if you want to continue to protect private property Only defense against hegemonic threats Major defense against local threats
35	Threats Nucs Biological warfare Chemical warfare Nondestructive weapons Smart weapons Cyber Warfare Future weapons
36	Future Military can’t expand without government leadership Dependent on government involvement Assuming no more restrictions or regulations on the marketplace
37	10 Years Nucs Need development Need dampers Need detectors Need interceptors Needs protection Will not get any of this unless it becomes an imperative of the government Limited by weapons agreements—as long as our enemies are limiting (no agreements with Russia or China)
38	10 Years Biological and Chemical warfare No development Restricted by agreements (with USSR, EU) Need development to design defenses
39	10 Years Nondestructive weapons Significant development Many NGOs attempting to restrict Types Sonic IR Microwave Visible light Chemical – not so much, tear gas
40	10 Years Smart weapons Significant development Combat multiplier Using current technology to make more effective weapons
41	10 Years Cyber Warfare Most fearful area No significant development Could shut down US economy and nation Most dangerous Market is driving somewhat Little government action All computer systems vulnerable Future weapons – who knows
42	100 Years Military development dependent on perceived threat and government action Great threats Nucs Biological and Chemical Cyber Warfare Little action until…
43	100 Years Could get rid of many threats with defensive technology Slow response by government Military will trail market technology and react (hopefully successfully to military threats and actions) Smart technology development will continue to improve systems
44	100 Years With development could counter Nucs Biological Chemical Cyber War
45	1000 Years Will counter Nucs Bio Chem Cyber New threats – of course
46	10,000 Years Always new threats to counter
47	Summary Military 1. Looked at threats 2. Assumed everything is possible in its time 3. Looked at the past to see the future 4. Looked for the simplest solution
48	Conclusions Survival the reason for warfare/military Purpose protection of private property Governments drive military Hegemony (power and survival) result of military Government involvement and leadership necessary (only powerful nations survive)
49	Technological Predictions 1. Current technology review 2. Directions 3. 10 years 4. 100 years 5. 1000 years 6. 10,000 years 7. Summary 8. Conclusion
50	Next Time Summary and Conclusions