1	What will the World Look Like: Predicting the Future of Technology Energy L. D. Alford Engineer, Test Pilot, Author www.lionelalford.com www.ldalford.com
2	Future?
3	Books The Second Mission Centurion Aegypt The End of Honor The Fox’s Honor A Season of Honor
4	Fiction Historical Fiction looks to the past for understanding Science Fiction looks to the future for understanding Technology drives the future
5	Technology If we can predict the future of technology, we can predict the future of the world
6	Course Outline 1. Introduction and approach 2. Transportation 3. Computers 4. Medicine 5. Energy 6. Space and exploration 7. Military 8. Conclusions
7	Technological Predictions 1. Current technology review 2. Directions 3. 10 years 4. 100 years 5. 1000 years 6. 10,000 years 7. Summary 8. Conclusion
8	Approach So this is what we will do 1. Look at needs 2. Assume everything is possible in its time 3. Look at the past to see the future 4. Look for the simplest solution
9	Energy Replacing human work Turning resources into work
10	Rules of Energy Amount of energy in… must be less than amount of energy out Cost of energy in… must be less than cost of energy out
11	Energy in History Work is hard Energy is not an obvious concept Domestication of animals Transportation Tasks (plowing, moving objects, etc.) Mechanical had to wait for invention of 6 basic (simple) machines Truth of ancient world is almost all technological increase is based in warfare
12	History Lever Wheel and axle Pulley Inclined plane Wedge Screw Means of turning human/animal/natural force into work Development of energy had to follow
13	Energy Warfare 6 simple machines are all mechanisms in war Lever – siege machine Wheel and axle - chariot, cart Pulley – siege machine, moving heavy items Inclined plane – swords, armor, siege, defense Wedge – sword, piercing items, defense Screw – siege machine Common life Acceptance moved from war to other uses
14	History Early use of machines Repetition Mechanical Examples Windmill Watermill Ox mill Plow Cart
15	History Turn natural energy into mechanical energy Wind Water Animal Human All these are normally low energy sources
16	History What we need is a high energy source that is easy to control Fire Burning things Trick is to turn this into mechanical energy Engines Steam Internal combustion
17	History Still need better control Electricity – 1600 William Gilbert Electricity Easily transportable - wires Easy to make – generators from almost any mechanical source Easy to control – switches, CB, Breakers Safe Electronics
18	Modern Energy Electrically dependent Mechanically dependent Remember the rules of energy New rule In other words, when I change state of energy I lose ~20% each time
19	Modern Energy Chemical – whatever will burn Wood – 6300 btu/lb Heavy hydrocarbon (gasoline, kerosene, diesel) Gasoline – 20,750 btu/lb Kerosene – 19,810 btu/lb Ethanol – 13,170 btu/lb Charcoal – 13,530 btu/lb Coal – 12,000 btu/lb Hydrogen – 61,045 btu/lb but 319 btu/ft³ Natural gas – 21,000 btu/lb but 3,260 btu/ft³
20	Modern Energy Chemical – whatever will burn Wood – 6300 btu/lb – easy to get/grow, low output Heavy hydrocarbon – easy and cheap to make Gasoline – 20,750 btu/lb Kerosene – 19,810 btu/lb Ethanol – 13,170 btu/lb – costly/hard to make Charcoal – 13,530 btu/lb – made from wood Coal – 12,000 btu/lb – dig it out of ground Hydrogen – 319 btu/ft³ – very $ and hard to make Natural gas – 3,260 btu/ft³– easy to get
21	Modern Energy Chemical – whatever will burn Heavy hydrocarbon Easy and cheap to make Very high energy out for low cost and energy in 260 years of known reserves – finding more every day Can be made from coal/organic/gas etc. Natural gas Easy to get High energy out Lots of reserves Easy to make from organics
22	Modern Energy Non-Chemical Wind Requires 80% backup Huge area – Could put 100 Coal/Gas/Nuc plants in the space of one wind farm Low return Water – No more places to put it unless sea Solar 50% plus backup (sun doesn’t shine at night/clouds) Huge areas required Cells - more cost and energy in than output
23	T. Boon. Pickens Wind 80% backup Solar 50% plus backup Solar & wind force more Coal/Oil/Gas/Nuc
24	Modern Energy Biomass – not enough available Geothermal High cost (unless you live on a volcano/geyser Unintended consequences Nuclear Fission Fusion – (not there yet)
25	Modern Energy Nuclear Fission Lower radiation output than Coal Take radioactive materials out of the ground/reduce their radioactivity Breeder reactors (outlawed by Carter) French use them Until Chernobyl, no one had died due to a reactor incident More people die in coal mine/plant accidents weekly than have died in the history of nuc reactors
26	Modern Energy Nuclear Fission Nuc reactors can’t blow up Open pit reactors like Chernobyl can burn Only the Soviet/communist world have this kind of reactor Western world all have fully contained reactors Nuclear containment reactors can’t be breached
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32	Bottom Line Markets drive technology Restrictions on markets slow technological growth Government involvement slows growth
33	Where? Why is your gas so expensive? Government restricts drilling/refining/building refineries High taxes (.50 plus per gallon, that’s more than 5 times the 0.09 cents per gallon big oil makes) Why is your electricity so expensive? Government restricts/prevents nuc reactors
34	Needs Faster Easier Convenient Simple Cost Needs filled through technology Since the TVA, US gov has driven Energy Markets should drive Energy
35	Future Needs Lower cost Free market Looked at past What will the future look like? Energy will continue to be government controlled instead of market driven unless something happens
36	Technological Pieces Already have all we need except Fusion Will Nuclear Fusion be possible under government control? How can it be when they won’t allow Fission?
37	Fusion Answer to all energy problems Nation that develops first will control the world Answer to Energy Transportation Space Travel Military Power Everything
38	Future Energy sector can’t expand well or quickly without market Assuming no more restrictions or regulations on the marketplace
39	10 Years Cost of Gas and Oil will rise Ethanol requirements Food costs will rise Cost of Energy will rise No market, no nucs Electronics will reduce energy use Mechanics will reduce energy use Will continue to see wasted efforts in wind and solar energy
40	10 Years Cost will drive everything because market in new energy does not exist Fuel cell and battery development based in electronics and not energy
41	100 Years Fusion development – cost of energy plummets Many high cost energy concepts become cost effective overnight No pollution energy Cost of materials plummets – fusion can make many elements not possible before (He)
42	100 Years Solar cells become cost effective Wind becomes individually cost effective Oil still king for mechanical systems and for fuel cells – high energy per lb Begin to see Fission as a individual source
43	1000 Years Fusion power incorporated in individual products Heavy hydrocarbon still dominate in some areas Hydrogen liquid for some fuel cells etc.
44	10,000 Years Fusion is the power source!
45	Summary Energy 1. Looked at needs 2. Assumed everything is possible in its time 3. Looked at the past to see the future 4. Looked for the simplest solution
46	Conclusions Nuclear Heavy hydrocarbon Individual Cost All watchwords for energy in the future As long as there is a market
47	Technological Predictions 1. Current technology review 2. Directions 3. 10 years 4. 100 years 5. 1000 years 6. 10,000 years 7. Summary 8. Conclusion
48	Next Time Space and Exploration