1	What will the World Look Like: Predicting the Future of Technology Medicine L. D. Alford Engineer, Test Pilot, Author www.lionelalford.com www.ldalford.com
2	Future?
3	Books The Second Mission Centurion Aegypt The End of Honor The Fox’s Honor A Season of Honor
4	"Historical Fiction looks to the..." Historical Fiction looks to the past for understanding Science Fiction looks to the future for understanding Technology drives the future
5	Technology If we can predict the future of technology, we can predict the future of the world
6	Course Outline 1. Introduction and approach 2. Transportation 3. Computers 4. Medicine 5. Energy 6. Space and exploration 7. Military 8. Conclusions
7	Technological Predictions 1. Current technology review 2. Directions 3. 10 years 4. 100 years 5. 1000 years 6. 10,000 years 7. Summary 8. Conclusion
8	Approach So this is what we will do 1. Look at needs 2. Assume everything is possible in its time 3. Look at the past to see the future 4. Look for the simplest solution
9	Medicine Surgery Drugs Caretaking (patient care)
10	Medicine Healing Seems simple Historically obvious? Ancient world assumed Illness came from sin or the gods Wounds obviously result of—warfare Injury ? Truth of ancient world is almost all technological increase is based in warfare
11	History Treatment of wounds common Result of warfare Treatment of illness had to wait until Christianity then science Christianity, first way of thinking to separate gods/sin from illness Science followed much later Not uncommon in 3^rd world today to not treat illness
12	Medicine in Warfare Warfare Combat multiplier Necessary Very primitive Low survival Common life Low survival for injury Almost zero for body cavity penetration or infection
13	Buildings No hospitals until Christianity Greek temples to Aeslepious were places to bring people to die Christians used them for worship and took care of the ill Hospitals invented this way
14	Beginning of Drugs Purpose of drugs in ancient world was to treat wounds Alleviate pain and suffering Purpose of cures was to remove evil spirits and bad influences (purgatives) Under Christianity drugs began to take on features of curatives No science yet
15	Incipit Science Renaissance – dissection and investigation (slowly began to understand physiology) Leonardo da Vinci Andreas Vesalius William Harvey 19^th Century true advent of medicine Louis Pasteur – tied disease to bacteria Joseph Lister – modern surgery
16	Modern Medicine Surgery Replacement Repair Removal Drugs and medical devices Prevent infection (inoculation and antisepsis) Stop infection (antibiotics, radiation, chemicals) Replace missing or reduced function Correct body function Diagnosis
17	Modern Medicine Not so modern right now High technology surgery means Regrow Replace Non-invasive Not just remove and repair HT drugs means Individually tailored drugs Genetic level manipulation
18	Surgery Fastest moving areas Cosmetic – limited insurance, least regulations Eyes – limited insurance, fewer regulations Teeth – limited insurance, lesser regulations Slowest moving General – greatest insurance and regulations
19	Surgery Why don’t you have your surgery? Regulations and restrictions Intermediaries Medicare Medicaid Liability
20	Surgery What does future tech surgery look like? Non-invasive moving to completely non-penetration Internal repair Internal replace Dentistry is moving quickly in this direction Optometry also… Cosmetic surgery also…
21	Drugs Market restrictions are having a significant slowing effect on drug development Where are cancer cures Cure for the common cold Swine flu vaccine Major movement from cure to prevention Not really medical Personal responsibility in prevention culture become societal requirement
22	Computers and Robots Provide incredible capability for Medicine Surgery Drugs
23	Computers Human system modeling Drug modeling Simulations System simulations Social modeling Smart prosthetics – limbs, organs, etc. Smart implants Noninvasive diagnosis
24	Robots Surgery Internal operations External care and support
25	Bottom Line Markets drive technology Restrictions on markets will slow technological growth Government involvement will slow growth
26	Needs Faster Easier Convenient Simple These needs are filled, technology development can affect them Survival tends to drive medicine Markets should drive medicine
27	Future Needs Lower cost Free market Looked at past What will the future look like? Medicine will continue to be survival instead of market driven unless something happens
28	Technological Pieces Computers and electronics Human powered Human integrated Highly restricted in medicine Market shaped in entertainment Market shaped
29	Technological Pieces Replacement organs and parts Highly restricted Not being individually based much yet Engineered Drugs Highly restricted and not government recognized DNA operations
30	Future Medical areas can’t expand well or quickly without market Assuming no more restrictions or regulations on the marketplace
31	10 Years More preventative drugs Many will be required to use High cost return because of use Social and government pressure Social pressure to conform to health ideals Less curative drugs High cost to develop High restrictions Cure means less business
32	10 Years More cost effective innovations in Surgery Less invasive Slow acquisition of robots in surgery Low incentive Slow movement toward internal robot surgery Slow movement toward regrow except in Cosmetic Eye Teeth
33	10 Years Less hospital care Less time in hospital Move more care to home or outpatient Little movement toward individual cure Personalized drugs Personalized regrow More pressure for HMO Protects market
34	10 Years Noninvasive diagnostics continue to move forward Market driven Cost effective
35	100 Years Individual therapies prescient Organ regrow Personal drugs Human interfaces will move from entertainment field to medicine True prosthetics/cybernetics True full replacement
36	100 Years All surgery will be internal and robotic Most care will be outpatient Therapies will be all computer controlled and individualized Drugs will begin to move toward complete individualization DNA manipulation, womb, life, surgery, drugs
37	100 Years Noninvasive diagnostics Moving toward individual body system characterization and home diagnostics
38	1000 Years DNA level regrow and replace DNA level drug development Automated human medicine via diagnostics internal detection and body system characterization Doctors are system specialists not diagnosticians or surgeons
39	1000 Years Automated system surgery DNA Complete repair Extended life becomes strong reality Markets will drive down costs
40	10,000 Years Potential to repair all human problems Extended life spans Human care becomes automated and completely noninvasive
41	Summary Computers 1. Looked at needs 2. Assumed everything is possible in its time 3. Looked at the past to see the future 4. Looked for the simplest solution
42	Conclusions Internal Personal Automated Robots Computer controlled All watchwords for medicine in the future As long as there is a market
43	Technological Predictions 1. Current technology review 2. Directions 3. 10 years 4. 100 years 5. 1000 years 6. 10,000 years 7. Summary 8. Conclusion
44	Next Time Energy