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 L. D. Alford
 Engineer, Test Pilot, Author
 www.lionelalford.com
 www.ldalford.com

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 The Second Mission
 Centurion
 Aegypt
 The End of Honor
 The Fox’s Honor
 A Season of Honor

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 Historical Fiction looks to the past for understanding
 Science Fiction looks to the future for understanding
 Technology drives the future

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 If we can predict the future of technology, we can predict the future of
the world

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 1. Introduction and approach
 2. Transportation
 3. Computers
 4. Medicine
 5. Energy
 6. Space and exploration
 7. Military
 8. Conclusions

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 So this is what we will do
 1. Look at needs
 2. Assume everything is possible
in its time
 3. Look at the past to see the
future
 4. Look for the simplest
solution

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 1. Current technology review
 2. Directions
 3. 10 years
 4. 100 years
 5. 1000 years
 6. 10,000 years
 7. Summary
 8. Conclusion

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 Computation of mathematical and geometric systems
 Not simple
 Historically obvious?
 Basis of trade, building, warfare, religion
 Truth of ancient world is almost all technological increase is based in
warfare

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 Computation is based in what?
 Religion
 Sacrifices
 Time – base 60
 Number – base 5 and 10
 Meaning
 Trade
 Fingers and toes – base 10 and 20
 Indirectly warfare

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 Religion was focus of all life
 Warfare
 Sacrifices
 Number of troops
 Number of weapons etc.
 Counting is necessary
 Siege weapons
 Combat multiplier

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 Religious buildings
 Engineering

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 Logic
 Out of Philosophy (world man can know)
 Basis for mathematics
 Basis for geometry
 Basis for computations
 Only geometry until development of Arabic numbers and null (0)

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 Greek, Egyptian, Roman (all ancient numbering systems) don’t easily
allow basic math functions
 Arabic numbers and null allow
 Multiplication and division
 Decimals
 Fractions
 Negatives
 Algebra (symbolic operations)
 Functions

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 Logarithmatic numbers allow power functions and multiplication and
division
 Logs are the basis of computation
 Computers can only add in base 2
 Base 2 basis for computers
 0 – 0 – 2^{0}
 1 – 1 – 2^{0} + 1
 2 – 10 – 2^{1}
 3 – 11 – 2^{1} +1
 4 – 100 – 2^{2}

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 Abacas uses base 5 as an analog computer for addition, subtraction,
multiplication, and division
 Can’t handle logs or
powers

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 Slide rule is a simple analog computer
 Uses logs and base 10 to compute multiplication, division, power, and
log functions
 Development of digital computers based on electronics

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 Electrical
 Light bulb
 Tubes
 Nand, nor, or, and, gates and storage
 All logic based
 Boolean math
 Base 2 log
 Transistors

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 Integrated circuits
 Millions of transistors
 Stores millions of bits of data one bite at a time
 2 bit
 8 bit
 16 bit
 32 bit
 64 bit

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 Allow mathematical, geometric, computations and functions all based in
logic at very high rates of speed
 Almost at the speed of light
 Speed of light is a limit (speed of electricity in a wire)
 Integrated circuit limit is a nanoelectronic question, but we are
already there

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 Speed of light (electrons in a wire)
 Interference between transistors in an IC
 Wireless interference
 Frequencies
 Heat
 Power

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 Reaching or have reached all the limits in computers
 Solutions
 Market reduces cost
 Price point
 Multiprocessors
 Software

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 Low cost makes computers become part of everything
 Easier to change software than to change hardware
 Easier to integrate software than hardware
 Software is lower cost than hardware
 Software easier to make real systems work than hardware

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 Aircraft functioning becoming near 90% based on computers not hardware
 Automobile functioning increasingly becoming more about computers
 Engines…
 Power systems…
 All electronics…
 Phone systems…

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 Appliances…
 Simple systems…
 Cost, efficiency, effectiveness, productivity, longevity, failure rates
makes computer and electronic systems based on computers the choice for
everything
 Cost makes repair more expensive than replace

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 Markets drive technology
 Electronics are better in every way
 Moving “everything” to electronics makes sense
 Electronics starts and ends with entertainment
 Electronics will become the basis of all culture, society, technology

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 Faster
 Easier
 Convenient
 Simple
 Still have these needs, technology development will fill them
 Entertainment drives computers
 Electronics driving everything
 Mechanical bad – electronic good

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 Needs
 Looked at past
 What will the future look like?
 Computers will infiltrate every aspect of technology and science
(already has)

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 Computational power
 Memory
 Software
 Electronics
 Integration
 Data flow

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 Reached max based on single IC
 Multi IC
 Gang processing
 Software
 Multi processing
 Integration

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 Mechanical electrical storage
 HD  magnetic
 DVD  Laser
 Electronic storage
 Faster
 More efficient
 Cost coming down

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 Broadband
 Wire
 Wireless
 Internet
 Future?
 Restrictions
 Taxes
 Frequencies
 Market controls

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 Already reaching maximums in electronic capability
 Systems will expand beyond what is considered normal “science space”
 Assuming no more restrictions or regulations on the marketplace

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 Computers will integrate more and more
 Devices will become more and more integrated
 Electronic memory
 Transparent software
 Transparent systems
 Voice, vision, integration
 Initial robots (already here)

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 Costs will come down and down
 LCD business cards
 Wall sized LCD
 LCD paint

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 All walls will be LCDs
 Mirrors will be LCDs
 Complete integration of computers
 Clothing will integrate
 Automobiles

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 Systems automatically integrated in houses
 Heating
 Appliances
 Communications

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 Human integration
 Begin with computational – calculators
 Move quickly to full computer and games
 Wireless human systems
 From entertainment and communications to full human functionality
 Hearing
 Sight
 Touch
 Virtual world

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 System safety totally dependent on processors
 Robots are integrated fundamentally into systems
 Human integration based on computer systems

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 Movies will no longer need human actors
 Many routine things handled by computers/robots
 Doctors
 Manufacturing
 Sales
 Dining

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 Human integration will make all external devices unnecessary
 Wireless human communication
 Virtual world integration
 Human implant
 Robotic systems normative

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 External walls all LCD
 Paint
 Patterns
 Computerized changablity
 All general human services will be robot and computerized
 Entertainment specialty human only
 Transportation will be entirely computer/robot

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 Nothing will operate without computers
 Robots ubiquitous
 Human action and work will be based entirely in intellect and management

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 Computers
 1. Looked at needs
 2. Assumed everything is
possible in its time
 3. Looked at the past to see the
future
 4. Looked for the simplest
solution

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 Computers will infiltrate everything
 Robots will provide more and more services
 Devices will become human integrated
 Systems will become human
 Computers will become biological
 Computers are the unseen driver of all technology

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 1. Current technology review
 2. Directions
 3. 10 years
 4. 100 years
 5. 1000 years
 6. 10,000 years
 7. Summary
 8. Conclusion

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