1	What will the World Look Like: Predicting the Future of Technology Computers L. D. Alford Engineer, Test Pilot, Author www.lionelalford.com www.ldalford.com
2	Future?
3	Books The Second Mission Centurion Aegypt The End of Honor The Fox’s Honor A Season of Honor
4	"Historical Fiction looks to the..." Historical Fiction looks to the past for understanding Science Fiction looks to the future for understanding Technology drives the future
5	Technology If we can predict the future of technology, we can predict the future of the world
6	Course Outline 1. Introduction and approach 2. Transportation 3. Computers 4. Medicine 5. Energy 6. Space and exploration 7. Military 8. Conclusions
7	Approach So this is what we will do 1. Look at needs 2. Assume everything is possible in its time 3. Look at the past to see the future 4. Look for the simplest solution
8	Technological Predictions 1. Current technology review 2. Directions 3. 10 years 4. 100 years 5. 1000 years 6. 10,000 years 7. Summary 8. Conclusion
9	Computers Computation of mathematical and geometric systems Not simple Historically obvious? Basis of trade, building, warfare, religion Warfare? Truth of ancient world is almost all technological increase is based in warfare
10	History Computation is based in what? Religion Sacrifices Time – base 60 Number – base 5 and 10 Meaning Trade Fingers and toes – base 10 and 20 Indirectly warfare
11	Religion Religion was focus of all life Warfare Sacrifices Number of troops Number of weapons etc. Counting is necessary Siege weapons Combat multiplier
12	Building Religious buildings Pyramids Temples Engineering Applied science
13	Beginning of Computation Logic Out of Philosophy (world man can know) Basis for mathematics Basis for geometry Basis for computations Only geometry until development of Arabic numbers and null (0)
14	Numbers Greek, Egyptian, Roman (all ancient numbering systems) don’t easily allow basic math functions Arabic numbers and null allow Multiplication and division Decimals Fractions Negatives Algebra (symbolic operations) Functions
15	Numbers Logarithmatic numbers allow power functions and multiplication and division Logs are the basis of computation Computers can only add in base 2 Base 2 basis for computers 0 – 0 – 2⁰ 1 – 1 – 2⁰ + 1 2 – 10 – 2¹ 3 – 11 – 2¹ +1 4 – 100 – 2²
16	Computers Abacas uses base 5 as an analog computer for addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division Can’t handle logs or powers
17	Computers Slide rule is a simple analog computer Uses logs and base 10 to compute multiplication, division, power, and log functions Development of digital computers based on electronics
18	Digital Computers Electrical Light bulb Tubes Nand, nor, or, and, gates and storage All logic based Boolean math Base 2 log Transistors
19	Digital Computers Integrated circuits Millions of transistors Stores millions of bits of data one bite at a time 2 bit 8 bit 16 bit 32 bit 64 bit
20	Digital Computers Allow mathematical, geometric, computations and functions all based in logic at very high rates of speed Almost at the speed of light Speed of light is a limit (speed of electricity in a wire) Integrated circuit limit is a nanoelectronic question, but we are already there
21	Limits Speed of light (electrons in a wire) Interference between transistors in an IC Wireless interference Frequencies Heat Power
22	Limits Reaching or have reached all the limits in computers Solutions Market reduces cost Price point Multiprocessors Software
23	Infiltration of Computers Low cost makes computers become part of everything Easier to change software than to change hardware Easier to integrate software than hardware Software is lower cost than hardware Software easier to make real systems work than hardware
24	Infiltration of Computers Aircraft functioning becoming near 90% based on computers not hardware Automobile functioning increasingly becoming more about computers Engines… Power systems… All electronics… Phone systems…
25	Infiltration of Computers Appliances… Simple systems… Cost, efficiency, effectiveness, productivity, longevity, failure rates makes computer and electronic systems based on computers the choice for everything Cost makes repair more expensive than replace
26	Initial Failure
27	Bottom Line Markets drive technology Electronics are better in every way Moving “everything” to electronics makes sense Electronics starts and ends with entertainment Electronics will become the basis of all culture, society, technology
28	Needs Faster Easier Convenient Simple Still have these needs, technology development will fill them Entertainment drives computers Electronics driving everything Mechanical bad – electronic good
29	Future Needs Everything Looked at past What will the future look like? Computers will infiltrate every aspect of technology and science (already has)
30	Technological Pieces Computational power Speed Memory Storage Software Electronics Integration Most difficult part Data flow
31	Computational Power Reached max based on single IC Multi IC Gang processing Software Multi processing Integration
32	Memory Mechanical electrical storage HD - magnetic DVD - Laser Electronic storage Faster More efficient Cost coming down
33	Software Everything
34	Integration Everything
35	Data Flow Broadband Wire Wireless Internet Future? Restrictions Taxes Frequencies Market controls
36	Future Already reaching maximums in electronic capability Systems will expand beyond what is considered normal “science space” Assuming no more restrictions or regulations on the marketplace
37	10 Years Computers will integrate more and more Devices will become more and more integrated Electronic memory Transparent software Transparent systems Voice, vision, integration Initial robots (already here)
38	10 Years Costs will come down and down LCD business cards Wall sized LCD LCD paint
39	100 Years All walls will be LCDs Mirrors will be LCDs Complete integration of computers Clothing will integrate Color, patterns Sizing Automobiles Colors Capabilities
40	100 Years Systems automatically integrated in houses Heating Appliances Communications
41	100 Years Human integration Begin with computational – calculators Move quickly to full computer and games Wireless human systems From entertainment and communications to full human functionality Hearing Sight Touch Virtual world
42	100 Years System safety totally dependent on processors Robots are integrated fundamentally into systems Human integration based on computer systems Cybernetics
43	100 Years Movies will no longer need human actors Many routine things handled by computers/robots Doctors Manufacturing Sales Dining
44	1000 Years Human integration will make all external devices unnecessary Wireless human communication Virtual world integration Human implant Robotic systems normative
45	1000 Years External walls all LCD Paint Patterns Computerized changablity All general human services will be robot and computerized Entertainment specialty human only Transportation will be entirely computer/robot
46	10,000 Years Nothing will operate without computers Robots ubiquitous Human action and work will be based entirely in intellect and management
47	Summary Computers 1. Looked at needs 2. Assumed everything is possible in its time 3. Looked at the past to see the future 4. Looked for the simplest solution
48	Conclusions Computers will infiltrate everything Robots will provide more and more services Devices will become human integrated Systems will become human Computers will become biological Computers are the unseen driver of all technology
49	Technological Predictions 1. Current technology review 2. Directions 3. 10 years 4. 100 years 5. 1000 years 6. 10,000 years 7. Summary 8. Conclusion
50	Next Time Medicine