1	What will the World Look Like: Predicting the Future of Technology Transportation L. D. Alford Engineer, Test Pilot, Author www.lionelalford.com www.ldalford.com
2	Future
3	Books The Second Mission Centurion Aegypt The End of Honor The Fox’s Honor A Season of Honor
4	"Historical Fiction looks to the..." Historical Fiction looks to the past for understanding Science Fiction looks to the future for understanding Technology drives the future
5	Technology If we can predict the future of technology, we can predict the future of the world
6	Course Outline 1. Introduction and approach 2. Transportation 3. Computers 4. Medicine 5. Energy 6. Space and exploration 7. Military 8. Conclusions
7	Approach So this is what we will do 1. Look at needs 2. Assume everything is possible in its time 3. Look at the past to see the future 4. Look for the simplest solution
8	Technological Predictions 1. Current technology review 2. Directions 3. 10 years 4. 100 years 5. 1000 years 6. 10,000 years 7. Summary 8. Conclusion
9	Transportation Movement of goods and people Seems simple Historically very complex Why travel at all? Warfare Truth of ancient world is almost all technological increase is based in warfare
10	History Foot-based as old as humankind Needs Faster Easier Convenient Simple Ride on something
11	Early Transportation If you’re going to ride requires domestication of people or animals People Isn’t much of a speed increase Need more than one Need a means of cooperation Need a platform People can talk back Rather use people for battle No combat multiplier
12	Animals Animals Domestication Lots of choices Camels Donkeys Cattle Horses Horses?
13	Horses Early horses were not capable of carrying a human male Horses are herd animals Invention of cart or more precisely the war chariot Multiple horses (herd) Very light weight Combat multiplier Driver and shooter (composite bow)
14	Horses Effectivity based on train of technology 4000 to 3000 BC first use 600 BC end of chariots as a force multiplier 600 BC use as scouts 360 BC use for light weight warriors 300 AD cavalry capable of carrying armored warrior
15	Horses End of chariot era put horse and cart technology in the hands of the people Carts Chariots Plows (advent of true agrarian culture) Social acceptance and domestication Wealthy (ex-soldiers) Beginning of trade
16	Ships Ships likely started with trade however warfare is a potential beginning Well established in Med and ancient world Small to big Bigger better
17	Carts Ground based Roads Trains – 1820 England Market driven Warfare driven Mass transportation Automobile
18	Aircraft Aircraft 1903 Hobbyist Entertainment Market driven in spite of the Wrights Aircraft WWI Warfare driven development Market driven commercial train/bus model Market driven personal transportation
19	Aircraft Aircraft eclipsed Rail Ships Not automobile Have not moved yet to individuals as a mode
20	Restrictions What happened to Ships, Buses, and Rail Europe and Asia rail, buses, and ships still vibrant means of transportation In USA passenger rail is AMTRAK In USA buses are almost all government run In USA there are no flagged US deep water passenger ships Tax on boats destroyed small boat market Government ownership and regulation destroys markets
21	First Flying Car Waterman Aerobile - 1937
22	Convair Flying Car 1949
23	German Flying Car German design
24	Future Flying Car Concept Car
25	Where? Where is your flying car?
26	Why? In 1950 Ford Motor company approached the US government with a plan—government made FAA and flight regulations such that a flying car was unfeasible You would have a flying car today except for government regulations that prevent the building, licensing, and use of a flying car
27	Spaceflight Almost same thing happened with space flight Early 1980s US was approached with commercial satellite concept FAA made commercial rocket based space flight almost impossible in USA Could not restrict wing based flight, therefore spacecraft one (Virgin Atlantic, non USA) Commercial satellite operations are accomplished outside of the USA by Boeing, ISRO, and Arianespace
28	Commercial Spaceflight outside USA
29	Spaceflight Boeing is less competitive because of US tax policy Russian Federation sells seats to ISP, US will not Markets drive technology Regulation and taxes destroy market
30	Bottom Line Markets drive technology Controls on markets destroy markets and reduce technology Your flying car was regulated away—for now! Note that older modes of transportation become entertainment means Walking, running, riding, etc.
31	Needs Faster Easier Convenient Simple Still have these needs, technology development will fill them Warfare still drives transportation Passenger transportation is the primary driver and need
32	Future Needs Business and trade Warfare Looked at past What will the future look like? Rail Automobile Aircraft and spacecraft Watercraft
33	Technological Pieces Propulsion Speed Navigation Control
34	Propulsion First rule of energy (will look in detail in Energy) Power out must exceed power in Cost in must be less than cost at end Rules out (right now) Electricity Solar Alcohol (Ethanol) Hydrogen
35	Power Hydrocarbon fuel is best answer for now and immediate future 260+ years of known reserves (increasing) Can make it easily if run out Most efficient and safe bang for buck Engines continue to improve
36	Power Hybrids are highly polluting Batteries Inefficiency Electrical vehicles are very inefficient and very high polluting Have to make the electricity somehow Batteries are highly polluting
37	Power Ethanol Costly to make High energy and water intensive to make 1/3 energy output compared to hydrocarbon fuels Hydrogen Costly to make Inefficient 1/10 or less energy output Very dangerous
38	Power Nuclear is most efficient and best fuel Fission Fusion Harnessing difficult Radiation a problem, but residuals are not Will discuss in Energy
39	Speed More faster the better
40	Speed and Time
41	Speed Problem of speed is based on environment Rail is limited ~ 100 to 200 mph Automobiles limited ~ 100 mph Aircraft limited ~ 0.7 to 0.8 Mach (600 mph) Supersonic aircraft limited ~ Mach 7 Spacecraft unlimited until in atmosphere Watercraft severely limited by water ~ 50 mph
42	Future Obvious that automobiles will soon reach max potential Individual flight based systems will come about Assuming no more restrictions or regulations on the marketplace
43	10 Years Automobiles will gain autopilot and autocontrol capabilities that will drive them to their max potential in speed We will likely see full autocontrol systems – parts are already here These systems will require and make cars sleeker and more efficient
44	10 Years Rail is dead unless it is privatized in USA Buses will become automated following automobiles (much later) Aircraft will continue a very slow progression except in homebuilt and hobby (unless restrictions are reduced) Ships are ships (slow for trade and entertainment, too restricted now for any improvements)
45	100 Years Individual aircraft will eclipse automobiles Control systems and engine efficiencies will move cost of jets and heavy hydrocarbon fuels to cost point of flight Not far right now Control systems key Rail and ships purely entertainment and trade Aircraft still buses for long travel
46	100 Years Commercial aircraft will begin to move toward space vehicles Long haul Supersonic Low space Commercial spacecraft will move toward trade from entertainment Will discuss in Space session
47	100 Years Spacecraft will provide entertainment flights to moon and potentially near planets Hobbyists in space Unregulated space market will blossom (unless restricted, potentially can’t restrict)
48	1000 Years Individual aircraft will push near current commercial speeds Hobbyist market in near space supersonic aircraft Commercial travel to near planets Will discuss in Space Revival of automobile for near planets due to lack of atmosphere Will come out of agricultural vehicles
49	1000 Years Commercial aviation, rail, and ships will be for trade and entertainment only Commercial space travel growing venue
50	10,000 Years Individual spacecraft Hobbyist market in interplanetary craft Intersystem travel common Degree depends on technology and market Restrictions and regulation dependent Rail, ships, bus aviation, for trade and entertainment only
51	Summary Transportation 1. Looked at needs 2. Assumed everything is possible in its time 3. Looked at the past to see the future 4. Looked for the simplest solution
52	Conclusions Saw individual craft still a focus of society Transition of technology to individuals More freedom not less Markets continue to drive Mass transportation changes to individual transportation Conquer the universe (we’ll look at space)
53	Technological Predictions 1. Current technology review 2. Directions 3. 10 years 4. 100 years 5. 1000 years 6. 10,000 years 7. Summary 8. Conclusion
54	Next Time Computers